RISK ASSOCIATED WITH INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Risks in International Trade are the major barriers for the growth to the same. The increase in the export market is highly beneficial to an economy, but on the other hand the increase in imports can be a threat to the economy of that country. It has been the worry of the policy makers to strike the right balance between free trade and restrictions.
International trade can develop an economy, but at the same time certain domestic players can be outperformed by financially stronger multi nationals and forced to close down or get merged. Sometimes these multinational companies become so powerful, especially in smaller countries, that they can dictate political terms to the government for their benefit.
International trade is characteristically costlier in terms of domestic trade. There are a number of reasons such as, tariffs, cost of delay, cost related to differences in legal system, etc.
International trade exposes exporters and importers to substantial risks, especially when the trading partner is far away or in a country where contracts are hard to enforce.
The following are types of risk associated with international trade and their various affects.
- Investment risk
- Business risk
- Purchasing power risk
- Foreign Exchange risk
- Financial Risk
- Interest Rate Risk
- Default risk
- Political Risk
Foreign Exchange Risk
A buyer or seller may deal with foreign currencies in their daily course of business. This implies that they are exposed to fluctuations in foreign exchange market which may result in paying more (by the buyer) or receiving less (from the buyer) in terms of the local currency.
Exchange rates fluctuate due to a great many factors. Some may be strictly financial but political events can also affect the exchange rates. If there is the threat of military conflict in some part of the world those holding funds there may want to transfer their holdings to the U.S. They consequently exchange their currency for dollars thus driving up the value of the dollar.
Currency Exchange Rate Risk is a financial risk posed by an exposure to unanticipated changes in the exchange rate between two currencies. The exchange rate between currencies fluctuates over time, and can lead to unexpected gains or losses.
Currency exchange rate risk includes transaction exposure, economic exposure, and translation exposure.
- Interest Rate Risk: Interest rate risk is the risk borne by an interest-bearing asset, such as a floating rate loan. An increase in interest rate will result in buyer or seller paying more interest for their floating rate loan.
- Political/Sovereign Risk: Political/sovereign risk refers to the complications that buyer or seller may be expose due to unfavourable political decisions or political changes that may vary the expected outcome of an outstanding contract. Examples of political/sovereign risk are changes in fiscal/monetary policy, war, riots, terrorism, trade embargoes, etc.
International trade requires taking into account the risks that are inherent in doing business across political boundaries. These include changes in political environment and the resultant impact on business viability, violence, conflicts, regulatory sanctions imposed by authorities and even cultural issues. Managing them can often hold the key to successful ventures.
International trade is a risky business, especially when it involves countries outside Europe and North America. Among many of the risks involved in it, the political ones are the most difficult to measure, while having the potential of greatest damage as well. The political risks that can confront an international trader can arise in several ways. The most common of these is the ‘change of government’. In a democracy, this can happen in the form of election of a different party to power. Such cases, being quite common in established mature democracies, can often be foreseen to some extent, and hence it is one of those political risks that is comparatively easier to plan for.
Even in a democracy, a democratically elected government can also be removed from power, by overnight political manipulations, like division of the ruling political party, or another leader rebelling from within. This, of course, is a feature of parliamentary democracy. In Presidential form of government, the sudden unexpected change of rule can come by sudden death, or assassination, of the President. Sometimes, this change of government may take place in the State or Local Government, whose policies may be more relevant for that particular trade.
Default Risks
Default risks is the chance that companies or individuals will be unable to meet the required payments on their debt obligations. Lenders and investors are exposed to default risk in virtually all forms of credit extensions. To mitigate the impact of default risk, lenders often charge rates of return that correspond the debtor’s level of default risk. A higher level of risk leads to a higher required return.
In International trade exports are more sensitive to financial shocks due to the higher default risk and higher working-capital requirements associated with international trade. … vessel, we can see that it is not uncommon for goods to spend approximately two months in transit.
Credit default risk occurs when a borrower cannot repay the loan. Eventually, usually after a period of 90 days of nonpayment, the loan is written off. Banks are required by law to maintain an account for loan loss reserves to cover these losses.
Banks reduce credit risk by screening loan applicants, requiring collateral for a loan, performing a credit risk analysis, and by diversification of risks.
Financial risk:
One of the major financial risks concerned with international business management is fluctuations in foreign exchange. As currency rate for each country may vary due to various economical factors around the globe it may affect organizations in international business. Another risk associated with the financial crisis is the side effect of political leadership changes occurring in the country.
- Crisis due to Currency Fluctuations: If the value of the currency falls below a certain stage it can directly affect the international business. This effect will be crucial in the case of small business owners having export into international market. Insuring against such crisis is possible but the investment in insurance is also costly.
- Risk associated with Foreign Exchange: The foreign exchange rate changes affects small business firms having international workers. And if the supplier is also from another country it will also need to be monitored for reducing the risk due to foreign exchange. As these fluctuations in currency is having positive and negative the expectations can not be predicted.
- Risk Associated with Political Change: Sometimes the change in political leadership can contribute to changes in foreign exchange. There is also chances of policies changing due to leadership change. Additional tax implemented by the political system can also affect the international trade.
- Business risk: Business risk is the possibility that a company will have lower than anticipated profits, or that it will experience a loss rather than a profit. Business risk is influenced by numerous factors, including sales volume, per-unit price, input costs, competition, overall economic climate and government regulations.
These types of risk greatly affects international trade as it involves a firm/company/country or an individual taking a business adventure into an unfamiliar terrain where he/she is not so certain of the outcome of such business venture. For a company or firm to engage in an international trade they must be ready to take a reasonable business risk and build up strategies that enable them mitigate against such possible risk.
Investment risk:
All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. The following are some general risks associated international trade. Each specific investment approach and product will have its own specific risks and risks will vary. The following are example of investment risk associated with International Trade:
- Equity market risks: Equity markets are subject to many factors, including economic conditions, government regulations, market sentiment, local and international political events, and environmental and technological issues.
- Smaller capitalization stock risks: The share prices of small and mid-cap companies may exhibit greater volatility than the share prices of larger capitalization companies. In addition, shares of small and mid-cap companies are often less liquid than larger capitalization companies.
- Concentration risk: Concentration of investments in a relatively small number of securities, sectors or industries, or geographical regions may significantly affect performance.
- Fixed income securities market risks: Fixed income securities markets are subject to many factors, including economic conditions, government regulations, market sentiment, and local and international political events. In addition, the market value of fixed income securities will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates, currency values, and the creditworthiness of the issuer.
- Below investment grade risks: Lower-rated securities have a significantly greater risk of default in payments of interest and/or principal than the risk of default for investment-grade securities. The secondary market for lower-rated securities is typically much less liquid than the market for investment-grade securities, frequently with significantly more volatile prices and larger spreads between bid and asked price in trading.
- Credit risk: The value of fixed income security may decline, or the issuer or guarantor of that security may fail to pay interest or principal when due, as a result of adverse changes to the issuer’s or guarantor’s financial status and/or business. In general, lower-rated securities carry a greater degree of credit risk than higher-rated securities.
- Interest-rate risk: Generally, the value of fixed income securities will change inversely with changes in interest rates. The risk that changes in interest rates will adversely affect investments will be greater for longer-term fixed income securities than for shorter-term fixed income securities.
- Foreign and emerging markets risk: Investments in foreign markets may present risks not typically associated with domestic markets. These risks may include changes in currency exchange rates; less-liquid markets and less available information; less government supervision of exchanges, brokers, and issuers; increased social, economic, and political uncertainty; and greater price volatility. These risks may be greater in emerging markets, which may also entail different risks from developed markets.
- Commodities risks: Exposure to the commodities markets may be more volatile than investments in traditional equity or fixed income securities. The value of commodity-linked derivative instruments may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, interest-rate changes, or events affecting a particular commodity or industry.
- Currency risk: Investments in currencies, currency derivatives, or similar instruments, as well as in securities that are denominated in foreign currency, are subject to the risk that the value of a particular currency will change in relation to one or more other currencies.
- Alternatives risks: Alternative investments tend to use leverage, which can serve to magnify potential losses. Additionally, they can be subject to increased illiquidity, volatility and counterparty risks, among other risks.
8. Purchasing power risk:
This is a risk that unexpected changes in consumer prices will penalize an investor’s real return from holding an investment. Because investments from gold to bonds and stock are priced to include expected inflation rates, it is the unexpected changes that produce this risk. Fixed income securities, such as bonds and preferred stock, subject investors to the greatest amount of purchasing power risk since their payments are set at the time of issue and remain unchanged regardless of the inflation rate.
This type of risk have great impact on international trade as the purchasing power of a particular country currency fluctuate as a result of inflation thereby reducing the purchasing power of such currency against its counterpart in international trade. This is currently experienced in the case of Nigeria where the value of Naira against dollars have increased geometrically over the recent past.
CONCLUSION
The increase in the export market is highly beneficial to an economy, but on the other hand the increase in international trade can be a threat to the economy of a country therefore a firm/company/country or individual must be prepared and ready to deal with the various risk associated with international trade.
REFERENCES
Ryan Baird, ( 2009) “The Importance of Country Risk in Determining Trade
Flows: The Preference for a Sure Thing” http://www.allacademic.com/meta/pmla_ apa_research_citation/1/6/7/9/6/p167964_index.html
“Risk source and Management in International Business”, China Business Monthly, February 2010
Ian H. Giddy and Gunter Dufey “The Management of Foreign Exchange Risk” from New York University and University of Michigan
Altman, Edward I., and Anthony Saunders. “Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years.” Journal of Banking & Finance 21.11 (1997): 1721-1742.